“Nana” is what my grandson calls his grandma. Bertha – Tropical storm for 1 day https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/. Veery definition, a thrush, Catharus fuscescens, common in the eastern and northern U.S., noted for its song. I will note that the Atlantic Basin is “high” for this date, but the NH (Pacific + Atlantic) is well below historical average for YTD. What that says is the Northern Hemisphere ACE is currently at 54% of the 1981-2010 historical average. The number of TS and H really doesn’t matter. Resiliency is a way of life when you've seen "many, many hurricanes" come your way.The coronavirus shutdowns have brought new hardships for an area reliant on 窶ヲ Experts predict active 2020 hurricane season 07:20. And if you’re going to spend 75% of your time putting out bulletins on tropical storms quit calling yourself the Hurricane Center. It would be funny if it were not so dire – the dumbing down of the general population that is.. (so they willfully accept any old propaganda fed to them). “After hitting Georgia, Nana killed 28 people, destroyed 500 homes, and left up to 20,000 homes with electricity.”, (Do you have any relatives named Georgia?). Zip, nada, not even the potential for a tropical disturbance. What does NOAA have against using storm names beginning with the letters “Q” and “U”? Here is the Veery prediction based on our data: 窶廣verage窶� #Hurricane Up to 70mph gusts that took down trees, fences and power lines. “There’s a good chance this year’s hurricane season will be average or below, so we need to run this story now for all the Doom Scrollers to grieve over before it proves to be false.”. “This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. The changing of the US land temperature record is a cottage industry where past warm periods are cooled to agree with agenda which is to create a hockey stick graph for distribution. A main climate factor behind these conditions is the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time. Use up and down arrows to change selection. Will Trump send the Paris Agreement to the US Senate? Or are they talking about the whole globe? Recently searched locations will be displayed if there is no search query. How Long Will Northeast Snowstorm Drought Last? I am pleased with this sweet video portrait of a Veery thrush. Edwards said President Wow, I missed the first 6. Oh well, I liked Isaias – except for the fact she zapped my AC! Yes these and other storms are dangerous and destructive, but none of them were the Categories they are officially labeled as. PUBLISHED 8:00 AM ET Sep. 03, 2020 PUBLISHED 8:00 AM EDT Sep. 03, 2020 SHARE Feathered forecasters might be better than people at predicting the hurricane season. The reason for more named storms are insurance companies. http://climatlas.com/tropical/ 2020 Bird of the Year: Cedar Waxwing Famously gregarious, Cedar Waxwings are all about community. veery bird hurricane 2020 by | Oct 8, 2020 | Uncategorized | 0 comments Get news & recommendations for Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, HBO, and more, in your inbox. The small birds, similar to robins, rarely leave the forest and so may be less familiar to most people. It really isnt that strong at all. Even though the tropical storm, in question, only reached Hurricane level wind speed for hours, not days. What cannot be denied is that in recent decades the NOAA/NHC straff has taken to naming every tropical low out in the Atlantic or Carribean or GoM that they can ID. Hanna – Tropical Depression – Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker, “…flashy (apparently widely distributed)”– Michael E. Mann, Material on this website is copyright © 2006-2019, by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. The US government system has become like the old Soviet Union, where any number could be changed for political reasons. Haven窶冲 seen any 2020 data yet. We are chillin again! The American Birding Podcast brings together staff and friends of the American Birding Association as we talk about birds, birding, travel 窶ヲ Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. The song of the Veery is one of the most magical and exquisite in the bird world. Well, we just got hit with another I storm (wimpy – Isabel in 03 was a dozy, but Irene and Isaias (I love that name the best) were welcome rain. See the About>Contact menu under the header. No acknowledgement that increased monitoring detects threshold events that tip Tropical Storms into Cat Hurricanes and so on? Yes, and also check out the NOAA page with the current season history: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml, Nearly all of the “named” storms are well out to sea and below hurricane strength. And what controls the formation of that? An observer who waits patiently inside the woods may see the Veery itself, bounding across the forest floor with long springy hops or perching quietly in the undergrowth. Lucky you, in NJ many trees down and loads of power outages, associated tornado in Doylestown, Pa. “This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. The upper atmosphere has just been too cool to allow it. Today’s ACE at 81.45 versus the average for this date (6Aug 2020) being 149. On the very old, established, and well used Beaufort scale, a Storm is a force 10, with a wind speed of 55–63 mph. Staying 窶ヲ They leave early if it’s a bad hurricane year. “It is now more important than ever to stay informed with our forecasts, have a preparedness plan, and heed guidance from local emergency management officials.”. OK, that’s an overreaction, but I will adjust, re: when I rent a car for vacation this September in Marco Island, Florida, I will go ahead and pay some extra for the destruction insurance. CNN's Karen Maginnis reports. Based on what we窶况e seen at our #Delaware study site, I can窶冲 quite say the same. Open-sided eyewalls have been plentiful these last 5 years. They leave early if Veeries migration 2020. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. I’m trying to find a source and I am having a lot of trouble. Lots of name inflation going on. An observer who waits patiently inside the woods may see the Veery itself, bounding across the forest floor with long springy hops or perching quietly in the undergrowth. I believe that largest come from behind victory in a major was when bad winds hit later in the day causing the top of the leader board to shoot poor final round. Is this the same agency that did such a poor job of forecasting the strength and path of Isaias compared witb most other models? Considering that weather forecasting is pretty dismal even 24 hours out, and this IS weather forecasting, how do they expect us to believe they won’t do any better than chance at their forecasts? In moist leafy woods across the northern states and southern Canada, the breezy spiraling song of this thrush is a common sound in summer. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. How could it be favoring hurricanes when we went through a stretch of over 7 years with no major hurricanes? January 7, 2020 Rachel Carson, author of Silent Spring, and her beloved friend Dorothy Freeman shared a love of nature窶ヲ and especially of one particular bird: the Veery, a type of thrush. In 2014 there was a windstorm that hit a small area north of Spokane, Wa. NOAA claims: “Extremely active” hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin, Al Gore and Bill Nye FAIL at doing a simple CO2 experiment, List of excuses for ‘The Pause’ in global warming, Roger Pielke Jr.’s 2020 Hurricane Season Recap. They have to find storms. (Miriam O’Brien aka slandering “Sou” from Hotwhopper, that means you.). NOAA’s number of named storms is scientifically meaningless the way they are doing it now. Some material from contributors may contain additional copyrights of their respective company or organization. (wind speed increases with altitude so reporting the speed at 10,000 ft as what happens on the ground, is an outright lie). Joel, if you read the fine print…NOAA is basing their prediction on a La Nina forming, …and out of the other side of their mouth they say this, “The current forecast, a 50-55% chance of La Niña, is not a very strong probability. For permission, contact us. Got it. So they can then make “accurate” predictions – because their fingers are on the scale, and causing more depressions to become tropical storms, and more tropical storms to become hurricanes – as the definition is based on sustained wind speed on the ground. here’s the list from WU: The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). I want my name on this theory someday! Go to this page here: ), and it was quite the hoot, with max winds around 80 mph and golf balls that went somewhere else. Fay – Tropical Storm for two days The NHC TS and Hurricane wind speeds are consistently 10 to 30 kt higher than these observations, with the 30kt discrepancy showing for highest hurricane wind speeds. Dryer t-storm outflow winds just kill off other newly building t-cells. And I think it was more than 7 years. Of course, if you are prepared as you should be, you don’t need to be worried whatever the season brings. This researcher on Twitter https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286047423962533889 and especially this tweet: https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286118721992491015 Good luck! Seasonal high temps over the desert, which quite frankly, haven’t been all that high this year. Most Veeries are a warm cinnamon brown above, with delicate spots on the throat; though far northwestern and northeastern 窶ヲ Chinese Lunar Landing Mission Challenges US Space Supremacy, LIVE STREAM: Al Gore on using satellite data to measure climate change, Ottawa's latest climate plan bets on expensive and unproven carbon capture technologies, Data Sonification: A New Cosmic Triad of Sound, Ottawa’s latest climate plan bets on expensive and unproven carbon capture technologies, Polar bear habitat update for late November, Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #433, Claim: Autonomous EVs will Help Solve the Climate Crisis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Veeries spend their No, the May version of NOAA’s seasonal forecast was “above normal”. This has been a weak season so far. Don’t worry about what they call you.” – Andrew Breitbart | read more, “…the world’s most viewed climate website” Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. Democratic Republic of the Congo | Français, State of Vatican City (Holy See) | Italiano. From Tuscon into the Mongollon Rim country has seen some storms, but they’ve lacked the ability to propagate out of the mountains and into the desert floor areas because… no moisture… because… no rotating Four Corners High Pressure! “C’mon kids, we have to leave NOW. Cristobal – Tropical Depression So not only do we have “adjustments” of the temperature record towards an agenda, but hurricane strength and numbers are similarly being fudged! Remember the phrase “a hurricane moistens up it’s surrounding atmosphere once it has walled off the core”? It doesn’t hurt that every well organized squall line gets a name these days. Most forecasts call for an active or above average 2020 #hurricaneseason. Nana is on that hurricane list … think of the poor little future snowflakes and get Nana off the list. So, except for the “Named Storms” propaganda, they are just parroting Joe Bastardi’s early March forecast. That’s why they put the ‘universal excuse’ word “possible” right in the headline. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Hurricane Iota remains a Category 5 storm as it moves toward Nicaragua, with winds reaching 160 mph and threats of deadly storm surge. With the same sorts of GCM models the so called experts use to predict climate change 20-50-100 years out! "I suspect that stronger hurricane seasons in recent years is probably having an effect," he said. The real story this year was the total absence of typhoons in the Pacific for a month. Can’t hoover the moisture off of N. Mexico into SoCal and AZ unless that high pressure is cranking in a circle. But it窶冱 not a canary that Heckscher is using for his hurricane outlook; it窶冱 a thrush species called veery. A more accurate measure would be to integrate the area of the storm by wind velocity squared. 1878 , Elliott Coues, 窶弩ilson窶冱 Thrush, or Veery窶�, in Birds of the Colorado Valley 窶� [1] , page 42: You can even see the bow wave outflow winds on some of the Sat images of recent hurricanes, ripping westward and southward across the ocean, killing the east and southern sides of the eyewalls. Northern Hemisphere ACE (YTD, 6Aug2020) 81.4650 149 54% 568 821. Personally, I think that the low sunspot activity and fairly quiet solar wind has allowed our atmosphere to “relax” the upper levels aren’t stirred as much, so heat from the lower atmosphere is more quickly shunted to space. The Times Magazine partnered with ProPublica and data scientists to understand how. The veery (Catharus fuscescens) is a small North American thrush species, a member of a group of closely related and similar species in the genus Catharus, also including the gray-cheeked thrush (C. minimus), Bicknell's thrush (C. bicknelli), Swainson's thrush (C. ustulatus), and Hermit thrush (C. guttatus). It goes back to the hurricane “drought”and their desperation to push the whole “global warming makes things worse by x100” mantra. What’s sad is people see so many “named storms” now that are nothing desensitizes them to the ones that need to be paid attention to. 39 mph is the top end of a High Wind, and the very bottom of a Gale. Coastal residents such as Monroe County Commissioner Craig Cates, a lifelong Key West native and the city's mayor from 2009-18, don't frighten easily. veery migration 2020 hurricane That analysis revealed the veeries had longer breeding seasons during years with relatively mild hurricane seasons and cut their nesting short in harsher years. If we don’t leave now it will be too late … Nana’s coming”. Considering the track record on predicting seasons, I wouldn’t be worried. Perhaps the blockage of circulation in the Nino 4 region in the Pacific will end. Experts predict active 2020 hurricane season 07:20 The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. But To this date we are usually only 9/104 ACE or 8.7% of the way through the tropical year. What was the prediction at the beginning of the season? Because of this, cloud tops in T-cells, the main driver’s of inflow winds around a hurricane’s central core, chill faster and collapse sooner. https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ Then again they do work for NASA so anything they say is suspect. It’s worse than we thought. It has an effect when it’s strong + or -, just no seems to know what it will be until after the season is nearly over. Shorten the individual thunderstorm life cycle due to increased upper atmosphere heat transfer efficiency and it all makes sense. This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date. Veery Grive fauve Catharus fuscescens Information, images and range maps on over 1,000 birds of North America, including sub-species, vagrants, introduced birds and possibilities The Veery is a member of the thrush family. Now do you get it? Plain looking as it is, the Veery has a (Irma was supposedly a cat 4 at 130+ MPH as it crossed the keys, but a buoy measured only 90 mph as the eyewall cross it). The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. I too have noticed this, repeatedly. Which is maybe true for the Caribbean but maybe not for the Atlantic. Isaias – Cat 1 Hurricane for 2 days. So let’s sit back with popcorn and watch as NOAA totally ignores upper atmosphere temps and their dampening effect on hurricanes. Modmic Not Detected, Picture Of Climber Plant, Cordyline Australis Toxic To Cats, Lisbon 15 Day Weather Forecast, Saas Reference Architecture, Spaghetti Pie In Springform Pan, Songs With Book Titles, De Bello Gallico Pdf Latín, " />

veery thrush 2020 hurricane

These Birds Are Surprisingly Good at Predicting Hurricane 窶ヲ More eggs are one indicator of a more severe hurricane season. They must name more high wind events to keep up the global climate narrative, that and it absolves the insurance companies from large payouts. Case in point, Heckscher reported in early July that his veery data predicted an above average hurricane season for 2018, with 3 to 5 major hurricanes and an ACE severity index between 70 and 150. These guys aren’t seeing your increase. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. https://www.netflix.com/watch/81084952?trackId=200257859 from about 3:00 to 10:00 mark. #SIOSI #connectednetflix. Today, NHC shows nothing. veery (plural veeries) An American thrush ( Catharus fuscescens ) common in the Northern United States and Canada. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center provides tropical weather outlooks out to five days in advance, provides track and intensity forecasts for individual storms, and issues watches and warnings for specific tropical storms, hurricanes and the associated storm surge. But it’s misleading to release statements where the terms storms, tropical cyclones, tropical storms and hurricanes are used almost interchangeably. It is the number Landfalling. Considering that the politicized science at NHC/NOAA has taken to “naming” every squall out or low pressure in Gulf or Atlantic, the only historical metric that matters anymore is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the entire season by tropical cyclone basin. I guess it could what with the sst and all but the climate change fun begins after it does and if there is sufficient destruction and death to make the case for climate action. Independently sourced and verified ACE is the tropical cyclone metric to make any comparisons. That was no major landfalling hurricanes. Take control of your data. Do not use website eor.emmft2018 it’s a scam site. Use escape to clear. That’s something that happens probably once in a couple of hundred years or so. (Source: Kelly Colgan Azar/Flickr) References This Bird Predicts Hurricanes Better Than Meteorologists, 2018, Nature Blog, https://blog.nature.org The first option will be automatically selected. And some of Atlantic tropical storms every year are categorized as Cat Hurricane wind levels …. https://www.audubon.org/news/are-these-birds-better-computers-predicting-hurricane-seasons. Cosmic ray database since April 1964 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/, “Extremely active hurricane system possible”. Then everyone says, “See, I told ya.”. No, no time for the toys … the dog will have to fend for himself. Visit https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes for more information. Did you at least take the storm out to dinner first? Veeries migration 2020. And I will add, the sustained wind speed numbers for TS and Hurricanes posted by the NWS/NHC seem to no longer reflect wind speed at ground level. At least they don’t try to claim that history started 22 years ago. But why would anyone believe NOAA? “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”. Well they best get busy, half way through and they are way behind. I haven’t found much specific for this year, except that someone spotted a Veery at late as July 8, 2020. http://birding.aba.org/mobiledigest/DE. There is still about a 40-45% chance that neutral conditions will remain through the fall and winter, and a smaller but non-zero chance of El Niño—around 5-10%.”, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch, ENSO is everyone’s catch-all get-out-jail-free alibi when the hurricane forecast flops. Geoff S, While we have had nine named storms, they have all been relatively short-lived. They pay less. … and for all things that are wrong. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png. The data: I’m a reasonable guy. Even ACE only uses the highest wind speed and does not account for the size of the wind field. With the sun now cranking back southward for winter, and decreasing daylight, I’m starting to think there might not be a monsoon season at all for Eastern SoCal this year. I searched here on WUWT to see the earlier prediction, but the search turned up nothing. A nearly two-decade Veery study suggests these feathered forecasters can sense major storms months in advance. “My wife and I played golf in the backside of a hurricane in Cancun, Mexico”. For instance, if you are in New England, in the event that a storm comes north like in the 1930s, do not plan to evacuate towards New York. to see up-to-date data, not emotional hype from NOAA. NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Birders, too, are frequently a social The two Cat 1 hurricanes were only hurricanes for 24-36 hours. That makes this early season very responsive to noise when the denominator is so low. “NOAA has the most highly trained and dedicated forecasters that serve to protect American lives and property. Being from Florida, I watch for tropical storms from June onward…. Let’s hope nobody dies in the upcoming main phase of the hurricane season, unless they are a CNN reporter. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020. 窶� BostonGlobe.com, "Bird sightings," 6 May 2018 The forest is a large and welcome habitat for forest birds like the veery, wood thrush窶ヲ NANA’s coming and we have to get out of here. Dr. Ryan Maue tracks that. Edouard – Tropical Depression So what changed? Arthur – Tropical Depression With named storms standard deductables at least in the North East of the US go up. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! These conditions are expected to continue for the next several months. I was under the impression that La Nina conditions produce less wind shear in the Caribbean making it more favorable to hurricane development. It’s been a high pressure ridge with the exception of about 5 days last week. Check your homeowners policy to confirm, “Walk toward the fire. The Battle for the Truth about Global Warming, “…invaluable” – Steven F. Hayward, The Weekly Standard, “…changed the world and is one of the most influential resources on global warming. New research shows that the veery, a migrating thrush, can predict the severity of hurricane season months in advance. But then Irene and Isabel were in September, so we have to go through a bunch of fish storms which shows they are right (even though 40 years ago they lacked the technology to find fish storms). Claim: Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer, The Covid Lockdown and U.S. Stock Markets – August Update, https://www.netflix.com/watch/81084952?trackId=200257859, https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286047423962533889, https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286118721992491015, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png, Massachusetts AG Tells Bloomberg Group of Plan to Use its Attorneys to Enforce Paris Climate Treaty, Climategate: Another Anniversary (never forget …. 8/6/20 Yep can’t it’s a big year….HYPE. Most Veeries are a warm cinnamon brown above, with delicate spots on the throat; though far northwestern and northeastern populations are darker 窶ヲ So, the very quiet, quiescent, inactive Sun does not penetrate your world view, all you see is everything burning up and everyone dying. This provides a limit on hurricane windspeed intensity because if you don’t have long-lived updrafts then you don’t have massive ground-level windspeeds. My wife and I played golf in the backside of a hurricane in Cancun, Mexico, with other golfers (ok, fanatics? There were still major hurricanes during that time. I use Windy.com which provides comprehensive ground wind speeds on their website, and their reports agree with both ground station reported speeds, and my local observations at my house. When the storm is far from land. I recall it was going to be an “average” season. It may be an active season. This means that you make sure that there’s room in your hopefully storm-proof garage to park your EV, and that your ICE SUV is gassed up and ready to go. Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really? The bird winters in 窶ヲ Most of the rest were tropical storms or less. In 1993, when he started this project, Heckscher said there were a lot more veery. Do take into account CoViD-19 idiocy in your preparations this year. Haven’t seen any 2020 data yet. Veery definition is - an American thrush (Catharus fuscescens) common in the eastern U.S.. Very true. Among the most beautiful of all bird songs, the Veery's voice is heard on its breeding grounds in damp northern woods. Of the nine named storms so far this year, only two landfalled. “This hurricane season FEMA encourages residents in hurricane-prone regions to keep COVID-19 in mind when making preparations and during evacuations.”. Been working from home for 5 months and I had no where to go. An extremely active hurricane season is what we are praying for because we are running out of climate crises. Veery bird migration date predicts Hurricane season strength: Dr. Chris Heckscher So I've blogged on the Veery before - I have Veery at the EcoEcho mini-forest - and the Veery is a very beautiful song, using natural number harmonics. It is easy to call them out on these lies – the real time dropsonde data is visible from the hunter aircraft – and you can document the fact they often use flight level winds as the basis for saying so and so storm has a wind speed on the ground of xx. Type at least three characters to start auto complete. Gonzalo – Tropical Depression They share berries, they congregate at fruiting trees, they even occasionally over-imbibe. Veery migration dates are historically more accurate predictors if hurricanes than the NOAA. Veeeies are a thrush that need to jump over the Caribbean as per of their migration. Dry air has abounded across the Atlantic, which wasn’t an issue several decades ago. This small forest thrush gets its name from the cascade of 窶忻eer窶� notes that make up its ethereal, reedy song窶蚤 common sound at dusk and dawn in summer in the damp northern woods. In my book, a tropical depression doesn’t deserve a name. A researcher studied Veery thrushes in Delaware for almost 20 years. Emotional hype and naming every low pressure that comes along is just pseudo-science garbage from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center staff. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. There wasn’t much happening until all the sudden Gonzalo was named…..Yep today there are exactly NO ZERO tropical storms anywhere on earth. TIL the Veery, a small bird in the Thrush family, is better at predicting upcoming Atlantic hurricane seasons than our best meteorological models. Veeeies are a thrush that need to jump over the Caribbean as per of their migration. ), Aussie State Tasmania Declares itself 100% Renewable Energy, EXPOSED: Return of Sue-and-Settle: State AGs, DC Swamp Preparing Biggest End-Run in History — “Green New Deal” with No Legislation, No Rulemaking Process, Just a Sweetheart Consent Decree, Climate Emergency! With improved forecast skill, new storm surge products, and new observations, such as GPS Radio Occultation, we are better positioned than ever before to keep Americans out of harm’s way,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. Data not emotional hype. Where do you source your Veery data from? They did this for Irma, Maria and Dorian as well as most of the others in the past 3 years. Maybe my memory deceives me but how can this be true, “ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time.” ? was the rest of the world active while the east coast was calm? Netflix show, “Connected,” first episode, “Surveillance” discusses the Veery information from Cornell Lab of Ornithology facility in Newark, Delaware, USA. With the building La Nina in the equatorial eastern Pacific by the Fall, the Atlantic basin tropical season activity will likely plummet as well so that the second half, where the bulk of the ACE occurs will go low. Try Google search for terms Veery Newark Delaware for lots of hits. Also of note, the NHC has been routinely inflating the wind speeds of all storms or tropical depressions for several years now. They are too likely to quarantine you for two weeks – in a warehouse on the waterfront. This hurricane season FEMA encourages residents in hurricane-prone regions to keep COVID-19 in mind when making preparations and during evacuations. “This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. But my AC company is champs! The veery (Catharus fuscescens) is a small North American thrush species, a member of a group of closely related and similar species in the genus Catharus, also including the gray-cheeked thrush (C. minimus), Bicknell's No insurance company could deny the homeowners claims or limit them as the storm wasn’t named. Heckscher was publicly pitting his napkin-math projection 窶ヲ Here's how it works: Dr. Hecksher and his team set up a 窶ヲ A songbird called the Veery thrush seems to be able to predict hurricane activity, according to two decades of study by a researcher at Delaware State University. Apparently alot of names makes “an extremely active hurricane season”. It was with some trepidation that, a little over a year ago, Christopher Heckscher tweeted a prediction: The 2018 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season would be stronger than average, with an accumulated 窶ヲ I believe it can also been seen in AZ too, as the regional dominating “monsoon” high pressure circulation has had a terrible time getting started this year. © Copyright TWC Product and Technology LLC 2014, 2020, These Birds Are Surprisingly Good at Predicting Hurricane Seasons, Another Mystery Monolith Pops Up in Romania After Utah Sculpture Disappears, Famed Radio Telescope in Arecibo, Puerto Rico, Collapses, Bicyclist Nearly Swallowed by Lakeshore Waves in Chicago, Dirt Biker Tries to Cross Swollen River in Spain, Regrets It, Dashcam Captures Fireball That Appears Brighter Than the Moon, Man Found Clinging to Capsized Boat After 2 Days Lost Off Coast of Florida, Winter Solstice Rings in Planetary Treat World Hasn’t Seen Since Middle Ages, Curious Deer Stalks Woman on Walk Through New York Woods, Tourists Struggle to Make Their Way Up Icy Great Wall of China. This small forest thrush gets its name from the cascade of 窶忻eer窶� notes that make up its ethereal, reedy song窶蚤 common sound at dusk and dawn in summer in the damp northern woods. Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. It’s important to track tropical storms just as it is necessary, nay, essential to forecast and track hurricanes that develop from them. They are now merely use it as a propaganda tool to support the Climate Scam agenda. After studying veeries for two decades, Christopher Heckscher realized these songbirds knew when a bad hurricane season was coming. save. The southwest area of the state around Lake Charles, which forecasts show is on Delta's current trajectory, is still recovering from an Aug. 27 landfall by Category 4 Hurricane Laura. Tropical Storm Eta Unearths 19th Century Shipwreck in Florida, Man Rescued from Frigid Waters After Boat Sinks in Alaska, Utah Wildlife Crossing a Success Two Years After Opening, Snow and Rain Sweeping Into Southern Plains, Lockdown May Have Saved Popular Hawaii Attraction. “How could it be favoring hurricanes when we went through a stretch of over 7 years with no major hurricanes?”. Veery migration dates are historically more accurate predictors if hurricanes than the NOAA. I agree completely. NOAA will continue to provide the best possible science and service to communities across the Nation for the remainder of hurricane season to ensure public readiness and safety,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. As solar activity increases, Atlantic activity is likely to increase in September and October. Charles Darwin Notebooks Worth Millions Stolen from Library? Someone needs to document this and call them out on their lying. I have been trying to correlate reported ground station wind speeds with the NHC online updates for storms, and they diverge greatly. Recent Examples on the Web Also spotted were a least flycatcher, a veery, and an orchard oriole. This downgrading of established standards thus eroding their value is typical of today’s left wing mentality. Today, the agency released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May. Top Image: The veery, a small migratory thrush on which this research is based. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. That is at least a 200% inflation of the actual strength of the storm…. I call the some of the depressions “15 minute tropical storms, As a recommendation for future minimum storm damage and after effects, should such authorities also point out that solar panels and windmills are damaged far worse than coal and nuclear power stations? Dolly – Subtropical Depression Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. See more. All these storms had wind speeds in the bottom of their categories. If you have short-lived t-cells, you can’t wall off a core of low pressure. So using [# named TC’s] is a completely erroneous metric now to compare to historical standards, as the politicized staff at the NHC have changed the naming standards. Extreme tornadoes caught on tape, hurricane videos, hailstorm videos, sandstorm videos form inside the powerful storms in 窶ヲ So… an entirely moisture-free monsoon season in Eastern SoCal has been on tap, which is super-boring for me. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify. If only I had a penny for all things that are “possible”, I would be the richest person in the world. Yeah they could not even get the forecast right for S Florida, 10 hrs in advance. And they have no prediction about that except the generalization that more probably means more landfalling. They were reporting cat 1 (meaning sustained ground wind of 74+ MPH), when weather stations within the eyewall were at 22, 27, 35, 18 MPH as it came ashore in S and N Carolina last week. We’re doomed. – Fred Pearce The Climate Files: Save the Great British Bakeoff, Roger Pielke Jr.'s 2020 Hurricane Season Recap. DonM ==> “Nana” is what my grandson calls his grandma. Bertha – Tropical storm for 1 day https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/. Veery definition, a thrush, Catharus fuscescens, common in the eastern and northern U.S., noted for its song. I will note that the Atlantic Basin is “high” for this date, but the NH (Pacific + Atlantic) is well below historical average for YTD. What that says is the Northern Hemisphere ACE is currently at 54% of the 1981-2010 historical average. The number of TS and H really doesn’t matter. Resiliency is a way of life when you've seen "many, many hurricanes" come your way.The coronavirus shutdowns have brought new hardships for an area reliant on 窶ヲ Experts predict active 2020 hurricane season 07:20. And if you’re going to spend 75% of your time putting out bulletins on tropical storms quit calling yourself the Hurricane Center. It would be funny if it were not so dire – the dumbing down of the general population that is.. (so they willfully accept any old propaganda fed to them). “After hitting Georgia, Nana killed 28 people, destroyed 500 homes, and left up to 20,000 homes with electricity.”, (Do you have any relatives named Georgia?). Zip, nada, not even the potential for a tropical disturbance. What does NOAA have against using storm names beginning with the letters “Q” and “U”? Here is the Veery prediction based on our data: 窶廣verage窶� #Hurricane Up to 70mph gusts that took down trees, fences and power lines. “There’s a good chance this year’s hurricane season will be average or below, so we need to run this story now for all the Doom Scrollers to grieve over before it proves to be false.”. “This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. The changing of the US land temperature record is a cottage industry where past warm periods are cooled to agree with agenda which is to create a hockey stick graph for distribution. A main climate factor behind these conditions is the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time. Use up and down arrows to change selection. Will Trump send the Paris Agreement to the US Senate? Or are they talking about the whole globe? Recently searched locations will be displayed if there is no search query. How Long Will Northeast Snowstorm Drought Last? I am pleased with this sweet video portrait of a Veery thrush. Edwards said President Wow, I missed the first 6. Oh well, I liked Isaias – except for the fact she zapped my AC! Yes these and other storms are dangerous and destructive, but none of them were the Categories they are officially labeled as. PUBLISHED 8:00 AM ET Sep. 03, 2020 PUBLISHED 8:00 AM EDT Sep. 03, 2020 SHARE Feathered forecasters might be better than people at predicting the hurricane season. The reason for more named storms are insurance companies. http://climatlas.com/tropical/ 2020 Bird of the Year: Cedar Waxwing Famously gregarious, Cedar Waxwings are all about community. veery bird hurricane 2020 by | Oct 8, 2020 | Uncategorized | 0 comments Get news & recommendations for Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, HBO, and more, in your inbox. The small birds, similar to robins, rarely leave the forest and so may be less familiar to most people. It really isnt that strong at all. Even though the tropical storm, in question, only reached Hurricane level wind speed for hours, not days. What cannot be denied is that in recent decades the NOAA/NHC straff has taken to naming every tropical low out in the Atlantic or Carribean or GoM that they can ID. Hanna – Tropical Depression – Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker, “…flashy (apparently widely distributed)”– Michael E. Mann, Material on this website is copyright © 2006-2019, by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. The US government system has become like the old Soviet Union, where any number could be changed for political reasons. Haven窶冲 seen any 2020 data yet. We are chillin again! The American Birding Podcast brings together staff and friends of the American Birding Association as we talk about birds, birding, travel 窶ヲ Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. The song of the Veery is one of the most magical and exquisite in the bird world. Well, we just got hit with another I storm (wimpy – Isabel in 03 was a dozy, but Irene and Isaias (I love that name the best) were welcome rain. See the About>Contact menu under the header. No acknowledgement that increased monitoring detects threshold events that tip Tropical Storms into Cat Hurricanes and so on? Yes, and also check out the NOAA page with the current season history: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml, Nearly all of the “named” storms are well out to sea and below hurricane strength. And what controls the formation of that? An observer who waits patiently inside the woods may see the Veery itself, bounding across the forest floor with long springy hops or perching quietly in the undergrowth. Lucky you, in NJ many trees down and loads of power outages, associated tornado in Doylestown, Pa. “This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. The upper atmosphere has just been too cool to allow it. Today’s ACE at 81.45 versus the average for this date (6Aug 2020) being 149. On the very old, established, and well used Beaufort scale, a Storm is a force 10, with a wind speed of 55–63 mph. Staying 窶ヲ They leave early if it’s a bad hurricane year. “It is now more important than ever to stay informed with our forecasts, have a preparedness plan, and heed guidance from local emergency management officials.”. OK, that’s an overreaction, but I will adjust, re: when I rent a car for vacation this September in Marco Island, Florida, I will go ahead and pay some extra for the destruction insurance. CNN's Karen Maginnis reports. Based on what we窶况e seen at our #Delaware study site, I can窶冲 quite say the same. Open-sided eyewalls have been plentiful these last 5 years. They leave early if Veeries migration 2020. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. I’m trying to find a source and I am having a lot of trouble. Lots of name inflation going on. An observer who waits patiently inside the woods may see the Veery itself, bounding across the forest floor with long springy hops or perching quietly in the undergrowth. I believe that largest come from behind victory in a major was when bad winds hit later in the day causing the top of the leader board to shoot poor final round. Is this the same agency that did such a poor job of forecasting the strength and path of Isaias compared witb most other models? Considering that weather forecasting is pretty dismal even 24 hours out, and this IS weather forecasting, how do they expect us to believe they won’t do any better than chance at their forecasts? In moist leafy woods across the northern states and southern Canada, the breezy spiraling song of this thrush is a common sound in summer. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. How could it be favoring hurricanes when we went through a stretch of over 7 years with no major hurricanes? January 7, 2020 Rachel Carson, author of Silent Spring, and her beloved friend Dorothy Freeman shared a love of nature窶ヲ and especially of one particular bird: the Veery, a type of thrush. In 2014 there was a windstorm that hit a small area north of Spokane, Wa. NOAA claims: “Extremely active” hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin, Al Gore and Bill Nye FAIL at doing a simple CO2 experiment, List of excuses for ‘The Pause’ in global warming, Roger Pielke Jr.’s 2020 Hurricane Season Recap. They have to find storms. (Miriam O’Brien aka slandering “Sou” from Hotwhopper, that means you.). NOAA’s number of named storms is scientifically meaningless the way they are doing it now. Some material from contributors may contain additional copyrights of their respective company or organization. (wind speed increases with altitude so reporting the speed at 10,000 ft as what happens on the ground, is an outright lie). Joel, if you read the fine print…NOAA is basing their prediction on a La Nina forming, …and out of the other side of their mouth they say this, “The current forecast, a 50-55% chance of La Niña, is not a very strong probability. For permission, contact us. Got it. So they can then make “accurate” predictions – because their fingers are on the scale, and causing more depressions to become tropical storms, and more tropical storms to become hurricanes – as the definition is based on sustained wind speed on the ground. here’s the list from WU: The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). I want my name on this theory someday! Go to this page here: ), and it was quite the hoot, with max winds around 80 mph and golf balls that went somewhere else. Fay – Tropical Storm for two days The NHC TS and Hurricane wind speeds are consistently 10 to 30 kt higher than these observations, with the 30kt discrepancy showing for highest hurricane wind speeds. Dryer t-storm outflow winds just kill off other newly building t-cells. And I think it was more than 7 years. Of course, if you are prepared as you should be, you don’t need to be worried whatever the season brings. This researcher on Twitter https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286047423962533889 and especially this tweet: https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286118721992491015 Good luck! Seasonal high temps over the desert, which quite frankly, haven’t been all that high this year. Most Veeries are a warm cinnamon brown above, with delicate spots on the throat; though far northwestern and northeastern 窶ヲ Chinese Lunar Landing Mission Challenges US Space Supremacy, LIVE STREAM: Al Gore on using satellite data to measure climate change, Ottawa's latest climate plan bets on expensive and unproven carbon capture technologies, Data Sonification: A New Cosmic Triad of Sound, Ottawa’s latest climate plan bets on expensive and unproven carbon capture technologies, Polar bear habitat update for late November, Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #433, Claim: Autonomous EVs will Help Solve the Climate Crisis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Veeries spend their No, the May version of NOAA’s seasonal forecast was “above normal”. This has been a weak season so far. Don’t worry about what they call you.” – Andrew Breitbart | read more, “…the world’s most viewed climate website” Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. Democratic Republic of the Congo | Français, State of Vatican City (Holy See) | Italiano. From Tuscon into the Mongollon Rim country has seen some storms, but they’ve lacked the ability to propagate out of the mountains and into the desert floor areas because… no moisture… because… no rotating Four Corners High Pressure! “C’mon kids, we have to leave NOW. Cristobal – Tropical Depression So not only do we have “adjustments” of the temperature record towards an agenda, but hurricane strength and numbers are similarly being fudged! Remember the phrase “a hurricane moistens up it’s surrounding atmosphere once it has walled off the core”? It doesn’t hurt that every well organized squall line gets a name these days. Most forecasts call for an active or above average 2020 #hurricaneseason. Nana is on that hurricane list … think of the poor little future snowflakes and get Nana off the list. So, except for the “Named Storms” propaganda, they are just parroting Joe Bastardi’s early March forecast. That’s why they put the ‘universal excuse’ word “possible” right in the headline. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Hurricane Iota remains a Category 5 storm as it moves toward Nicaragua, with winds reaching 160 mph and threats of deadly storm surge. With the same sorts of GCM models the so called experts use to predict climate change 20-50-100 years out! "I suspect that stronger hurricane seasons in recent years is probably having an effect," he said. The real story this year was the total absence of typhoons in the Pacific for a month. Can’t hoover the moisture off of N. Mexico into SoCal and AZ unless that high pressure is cranking in a circle. But it窶冱 not a canary that Heckscher is using for his hurricane outlook; it窶冱 a thrush species called veery. A more accurate measure would be to integrate the area of the storm by wind velocity squared. 1878 , Elliott Coues, 窶弩ilson窶冱 Thrush, or Veery窶�, in Birds of the Colorado Valley 窶� [1] , page 42: You can even see the bow wave outflow winds on some of the Sat images of recent hurricanes, ripping westward and southward across the ocean, killing the east and southern sides of the eyewalls. Northern Hemisphere ACE (YTD, 6Aug2020) 81.4650 149 54% 568 821. Personally, I think that the low sunspot activity and fairly quiet solar wind has allowed our atmosphere to “relax” the upper levels aren’t stirred as much, so heat from the lower atmosphere is more quickly shunted to space. The Times Magazine partnered with ProPublica and data scientists to understand how. The veery (Catharus fuscescens) is a small North American thrush species, a member of a group of closely related and similar species in the genus Catharus, also including the gray-cheeked thrush (C. minimus), Bicknell's thrush (C. bicknelli), Swainson's thrush (C. ustulatus), and Hermit thrush (C. guttatus). It goes back to the hurricane “drought”and their desperation to push the whole “global warming makes things worse by x100” mantra. What’s sad is people see so many “named storms” now that are nothing desensitizes them to the ones that need to be paid attention to. 39 mph is the top end of a High Wind, and the very bottom of a Gale. Coastal residents such as Monroe County Commissioner Craig Cates, a lifelong Key West native and the city's mayor from 2009-18, don't frighten easily. veery migration 2020 hurricane That analysis revealed the veeries had longer breeding seasons during years with relatively mild hurricane seasons and cut their nesting short in harsher years. If we don’t leave now it will be too late … Nana’s coming”. Considering the track record on predicting seasons, I wouldn’t be worried. Perhaps the blockage of circulation in the Nino 4 region in the Pacific will end. Experts predict active 2020 hurricane season 07:20 The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. But To this date we are usually only 9/104 ACE or 8.7% of the way through the tropical year. What was the prediction at the beginning of the season? Because of this, cloud tops in T-cells, the main driver’s of inflow winds around a hurricane’s central core, chill faster and collapse sooner. https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ Then again they do work for NASA so anything they say is suspect. It’s worse than we thought. It has an effect when it’s strong + or -, just no seems to know what it will be until after the season is nearly over. Shorten the individual thunderstorm life cycle due to increased upper atmosphere heat transfer efficiency and it all makes sense. This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date. Veery Grive fauve Catharus fuscescens Information, images and range maps on over 1,000 birds of North America, including sub-species, vagrants, introduced birds and possibilities The Veery is a member of the thrush family. Now do you get it? Plain looking as it is, the Veery has a (Irma was supposedly a cat 4 at 130+ MPH as it crossed the keys, but a buoy measured only 90 mph as the eyewall cross it). The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. I too have noticed this, repeatedly. Which is maybe true for the Caribbean but maybe not for the Atlantic. Isaias – Cat 1 Hurricane for 2 days. So let’s sit back with popcorn and watch as NOAA totally ignores upper atmosphere temps and their dampening effect on hurricanes.

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